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How will capacity markets change bankable revenues?
What Almena shows you
The retirement schedule, crossed against demand growth.
Spain retires roughly 10 GW of firm dispatchable capacity before 2028. Almena's demand pipeline shows granted demand access capacity growing materially faster than any prior NECP baseline assumed, data centre and industrial load additions are outpacing the projections the capacity market was designed around.
Crossing the retirement schedule against the demand trajectory, the adequacy margin tightens before the first auction has cleared. The difference between a capacity clearing price of €40k/MW/year and €75k/MW/year on a 100 MW asset over a 10-year contract is €35m over the contract period.
| Year | Retiring | Demand + | Margin | Price range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2.1 GW | +1.8 GW | comfortable | €28k–€45k |
| 2026 | 3.4 GW | +2.7 GW | tightening | €35k–€58k |
| 2027 | 4.2 GW | +3.5 GW | tight | €40k–€68k |
| 2028 | 10.1 GW | +4.9 GW | short | €48k–€82k |
What Almena replaces
A placeholder premium, replaced by a modelled gap.
A placeholder capacity market assumption in the base case, unsupported by a demand-side forecast crossed against the retirement schedule.
Almena replaces the flat guess with a modelled adequacy gap: retirements minus demand growth, auction clearing sensitivity, and the contracted revenue that actually depends on the outcome.
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